The US economy is in the Slowdown phase of the business cycle, according to our measure of aggregate US economic activity; growth remains positive but acceleration is negative. Historically, this ...

One of our key views is that 2026 is unlikely to deliver a repeat of the explosive equity gains seen in 2025, and instead, the rally will broaden and become more inclusive. Last year, performance was ...

The recent Bitcoin selloff is lacking a clear macro driver. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Artem Sakhbiev, from our FX strategy team. Bitcoin is down roughly 45% since its October peak, erasing all ...

The annual benchmark payrolls revisions revealed that the labor market has been weaker for longer than initially reported. The probability that a crack in consumption is just around the corner is much ...

Want to stay long stocks? Watch the 10-year yield. If we are not under 4% by the end of the year, stocks will suffer.

Our FX strategists expect the US dollar to remain the backbone of the global financial system, even as its reserve-currency premium gradually erodes. The dollar’s entrenched role in global markets ...

Falling oil prices are countering tariff-driven inflation which, along with a weakening labor market, is reinforcing a long duration stance. Brent crude broke below the $65/bbl support level held ...

Japanese yields are heading higher as Japan exits its deflationary regime. Japan is exiting decades of deflation and ultra-accommodative policy, and markets are trying to find their footing. While ...

The risk to Iran's regime survival raises the probability of a massive global oil supply shock back to around 40%, where we put it last year.

President Trump is threatening to impose 10% tariffs on several European countries unless they negotiate a final deal for the US purchase of Greenland. The tariffs would supposedly rise to 25% on June ...

The October FOMC minutes underscored deep divisions over the Fed’s next move, reinforcing expectations for a December hold but keeping the easing bias intact. The 10–2 vote for a 25 bps cut included ...

Favor curve steepeners and gold as recent price action highlights rising term premia and diversification away from US assets. With markets closed on Monday for the MLK holiday, Tuesday’s session saw ...