The US economy is in the Slowdown phase of the business cycle, according to our measure of aggregate US economic activity; growth remains positive but acceleration is negative. Historically, this ...

One of our key views is that 2026 is unlikely to deliver a repeat of the explosive equity gains seen in 2025, and instead, the rally will broaden and become more inclusive. Last year, performance was ...

The recent Bitcoin selloff is lacking a clear macro driver. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Artem Sakhbiev, from our FX strategy team. Bitcoin is down roughly 45% since its October peak, erasing all ...

The annual benchmark payrolls revisions revealed that the labor market has been weaker for longer than initially reported. The probability that a crack in consumption is just around the corner is much ...

Want to stay long stocks? Watch the 10-year yield. If we are not under 4% by the end of the year, stocks will suffer.

Japanese yields are heading higher as Japan exits its deflationary regime. Japan is exiting decades of deflation and ultra-accommodative policy, and markets are trying to find their footing. While ...

The risk to Iran's regime survival raises the probability of a massive global oil supply shock back to around 40%, where we put it last year.

President Trump is threatening to impose 10% tariffs on several European countries unless they negotiate a final deal for the US purchase of Greenland. The tariffs would supposedly rise to 25% on June ...

The October FOMC minutes underscored deep divisions over the Fed’s next move, reinforcing expectations for a December hold but keeping the easing bias intact. The 10–2 vote for a 25 bps cut included ...

Please join Chief Geopolitical Strategist Matt Gertken and Strategist Jesse Kuri for a Webcast, Thursday, January 15 at 10:30 AM HKT, 1:30 PM AEDT. Matt and Jesse will discuss: Unilateral US action to ...

Our FX strategists expect the US dollar to remain the backbone of the global financial system, even as its reserve-currency premium gradually erodes. The dollar’s entrenched role in global markets ...

Our Global Investment strategists expect 2026 to follow a two-stage pattern: a “Great Rotation” from tech to non-tech equities in H1, followed by a broader market selloff in H2 as US economic momentum ...